Friday, January 10, 2014

Ray Floriani's Tempo-Free MAAC Analysis

Ike Azotam is a significant reason behind Quinnipiac's offensive efficiency in Bobcats' first MAAC season. (Photo courtesy of Quinnipiac University)

With conference play getting into gear, it is an appropriate time to look at the MAAC. The tempo-free breakdown includes the conference record, offensive and defensive efficiency, and the margin. That is calculated by subtracting defense from offense. Naturally, you aspire to have a positive (the higher the better) number. Pace is the average number of possessions per game. Let us look at the MAAC, including games up to January 8th in order of offensive efficiency. (Numbers courtesy of Basketball State, only conference games are factored.)


Record
Off Eff
Def  Eff
Eff Margin
Pace
Quinnipiac
3-1
118
110
8
72
Iona
3-1
118
107
11
76
Canisius
3-1
114
103
11
67
Rider
3-1
103
104
-1
75
Manhattan
4-0
103
82
21
74
Niagara
1-3
102
111
-9
75
Siena
2-2
100
96
4
71
Marist
2-2
99
101
-2
69
Monmouth
1-3
97
106
-9
75
Saint Peters
1-4
90
101
-11
67
Fairfield
0-5
89
106
-17
71

Notes…

No surprise with Manhattan showing the largest efficiency margin. The Jasper defense is actually more impressive than their above average offense.

The slowest-paced teams are Saint Peters and Canisius at 67 possessions. Fastest paced is Iona, to little surprise, at 76. That is nine possessions separating fastest and most deliberate paced teams. Nine may not sound like many, but it is a significant difference in terms of possessions per game.
    
NASCAR goes North?
Basketball State likes to categorize the pace. For St. Bonaventure-Richmond women, a game of 61 possessions on Wednesday, the pace was labeled asexcruciating. Over 70 gets the label of "NASCAR." To date, games are averaging over 70 possessions. Interesting to see how that average pace figure plays out as the season wears on.

Rider is somewhat of an enigma. A 3-1 record and negative efficiency margin. How? For one, their defensive eFG mark is too generous at 51%. Offensively, the same number is just 48%, but that end of the floor is aided by a low 16% TO rate.


Manhattans outstanding defense is fueled by a conference leading 25% opposing turnover rate. 

Quinnipiac will outscore you. Their offensive mark is outstanding. The defensive mark is far below acceptable. One of the reasons is the Bobcats force opposition into only an 8% TO rate, the lowest in the conference.

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