NEWARK, NJ - This time out, our tempo-free treatise is on the oft-mentioned, all-important
Four Factors. Devised by analytics expert Dean Oliver, these are four major
determinants in winning and becoming a successful team. Now, ’winning’ three of
the four factors does not necessarily guarantee a single game victory. On the
other hand, that type of dominance can put a team in a strong position to
capture the contest. Let us begin:
For last Sunday’s 58-54 victory
by FDU over Seton Hall, we will look at the Four Factors. The game, at the
Prudential Center, was a 62-possession affair.
The offensive efficiencies:
FDU 94
Seton Hall 87
Effective field goal
percentage:
EFG = FGM + (3pt FGM * 2)/ FGA
The reward for burying a three point shot. Or a number of them. FDU hit
20 field goals, 5 of them from beyond the arc. That gives us a field goal made
number of 22.5. They attempted 46 shots so the 22.5 divided by the 46 gives a
49% showing. Seton Hall also scored 20 field goals. The Pirates hit 7 three
pointers. Their numbers were 23.5 divided by 53 attempts for a 44% eFG mark.
The actual field goal percentages for the game were:
FDU 43.5%
Seton hall 37.7%
You can see eFG rewarded
the Hall added percentage points for knocking down those seven treys.
Free Throw Rate:
FTR = FTA/FGA
Free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted. In general
perimeter shooting teams will have a lower free throw rate. A higher rate means
your offense is getting in a position to draw fouls, or the officials are
religiously employing the new points of emphasis, that’s another story. In
essence, you want your FT rate to be higher, especially than that of the
opposition.
FDU attempted 20 free
throws. That figure divided by 46 field goal attempts gave a 44% FTR. Seton
Hall attempted just 11. Their free throws tried divided by the 53 field goal
attempts equals 21%. Clearly, FDU stayed out of foul trouble while showing the
ability (the Hall’slate game fouling while trailing added a few attempts) to
draw fouls.
Offensive Rebounding
Percentage:
OREB Percentage = OREB/ (OREB + DEF REB)
This metric gives an
indication how hard a team is battling on the boards and, in general, hustling
overall. Another consideration in offensive boards is they A. can get the
oposition in foul trouble and B. can give the offense great scoring
opportunities as a number of offensive rebounds are secured in the paint with
the defense in a less than ideal position.
FDU had 10 offensive
rebounds. Seton Hall pulled down 18 defensive boards. The 10 of FDU are divided
by 28 for a 36% OREB rate. Seton Hall grabbed 11 offensively, FDU had 23 on the
defensive end. Those numbers give us 11 divided by 34 for a 32% OREB rate.
Again, FDU had a slight edge in this category.
Turnover Rate:
TO Rate = TO/Possessions
Simple. Divide turnovers by possessions. What is a good TO rate?
Experts agree 20%. You want your defense transforming 20 or more percent of
opposing possessions into turnovers. On offense you want to be under 20%. Think
of it, a 20% rate means one of every five possessions terminates in a turnover.
Not good at all.
FDU had 16 turnovers
divided by 62 possessions for a 26% (very high) rate. The Hall coughed it up 15
times for a 24% (another high rate).
The Table:
The summary in a neat, detailed graphic which affords a quick read.
FDU
|
Seton Hall
|
|
eFG
|
49
|
44
|
FT Rate
|
44
|
21
|
OREB %
|
36
|
32
|
TO Rate
|
26
|
24
|
Following the victory, FDU coach Greg Herenda said his formula for victory would be to defend without
fouling, rebound, and run good offense. Without even watching the game, the Four
Factors could tell you the Knights did jobs one and two well, but needed
improvement in the third category.
FDU
‘won’ three of the Four Factors and won the game. Still, it was a two-possession affair, and another turnover on FDU’s part and couple of Hall field
goals could have changed the outcome. For respective coaches, Greg Herenda of
FDU and Seton Hall’s Kevin Willard, the Four Factors give an indication where
their respective teams were strong and what areas need to be addressed.
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