Friday, November 25, 2016

Florida State 72, Illinois 61: Tempo-Free Recap

Leonard Hamilton addresses media after defeating Illinois for third place in NIT Preseason Tip-Off. (Photo by Ray Floriani/Daly Dose Of Hoops)

By Ray Floriani (@rfloriani)

BROOKLYN, NY - The NIT Preeason Tip-Off offered an interesting dynamic for the consolation.

Given the early season matchup, which could have a bearing Selection Sunday, another item came into play: The approach of the individual teams.

Illinois was soundly beaten in the semifinal by West Virginia. One would expect them to come out hungering for retribution after a one-sided defeat. Florida State, on the other hand, missed a last-second shot in their semifinal against Temple. How tough would it be for the Seminoles to rebound from the heartbreaker of a day ago?
Following a close first half, the Seminoles finished strong, opening up the game from midway through the final half. Florida State went on to earn third place in the NIT Preseason Tip-Off with a 72-61 victory over the Fighting Illini.
The possession equation, Poss = ((FGA + (FTA * .475) + to))  - OREB is said to be 97% accurate when compared to longhand charting of each possession. In the consolation, I decided to chart every possession by Florida State.
The first four minutes , a 5-5 tie, saw Florida State use six possessions during that time, an 83 offensive efficiency. The first half formula yielded 31 possessions, longhand recording 30. The difference was found immediately. Florida State attempted one free throw. The attempt multiplied by .475 rounds it up to one possession. That lone free throw attempt, though, was an extension of one possession. Florida State’s Trent Forrest scored on a penetration, was fouled on the shot, and converted. One possession difference gave a three percent difference between the equation and recording.
The final tally on the stat sheet (computed) possessions saw Florida State with 63. The longhand version figured out to 62. The difference was a mere two percent, and as has been the case in a few past possession recordings, the equation or formula for possessions is validated.

Numbers of note:

Possessions: Florida State  63, Illinois 63
Offensive efficiency: Florida State 114, Illinois 97

Four Factors:
eFG%: Florida State 57,  Illinois 37
Free Throw Rate: Florida State 35, Illinois 36
Offensive Rebound%: Florida State 27, Illinois 40
Turnover Rate: Florida State 14,  Illinois 18

Leading scorers and EF:
Florida State - Dwayne Bacon 17 points, EF 19
Illinois - Malcolm Hill 18 points, EF 28

What Florida State did well: Hit shots and limit turnovers. The free throw rate was a bit deceptive, as Illinois was in a late-game fouling mode. Overall, a sound offensive performance for the Seminoles.

What Illinois did well: Rebound, They enjoyed a 41-33 lead in raw rebounding numbers. Their work on the offensive boards extended several possessions.

“We focused a lot better than yesterday, especially on defense. We got a great game from our bench. Sometimes it doesn’t show statistically, but the effort was there. We switched defensively on Hill to limit his touches. At times, we were impatient yesterday, but today we moved the ball and got good shots. We tried to limit them from getting in the lane, but they do a great job of getting the ball to Hill. We have a different combination of guys. At times I look and we have three freshmen out there or three point guards, that’s who we are right now. If we continue to win while we are growing up, that’s who we are. We have starters, but need contributions from six or seven guys. We want to be consistent with our defense. I thought we grew up from yesterday.” - Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton

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