By Josh Noel (@Josh_DDH)
Less than two weeks from today, the Big South Conference tournament tips off from Johnson City, Tennessee for the second consecutive year. And for the second consecutive year, the Big South standings will be a photo finish.
High Point (24-4 overall, 12-1 Big South) and Winthrop (19-8 overall, 11-1 Big South) find themselves once again intertwined for a Big South championship. The Panthers aim to capture their third consecutive outright Big South regular season championship, while the Eagles seek a share for the first time since 2022 and first outright since 2021.
It’s not just the top seed that’s too close to call. The current third through sixth-seeded teams are separated by just a game and a half total. Radford (14-13 overall, 7-5 Big South) holds a razor-thin edge over Presbyterian (13-14 overall, 6-6 Big South), UNC Asheville (12-14 overall, 6-6 Big South), and Longwood (14-14 overall 6-7 Big South).
Charleston Southern (13-15 overall, 4-9 Big South) and USC Upstate (11-16 overall, 3-9 Big South) remain within striking distance of that pack, while Gardner-Webb (3-25 overall, 1-12 Big South) can still catch the Buccaneers and Spartans.
With four Big South gamedays remaining, here are the seeding scenarios for each team as the final quarter of the regular season concludes:
Going for Gold: High Point, Winthrop
After a classic Big South championship last March, these two programs haven’t missed a beat in the ensuing campaign.
The Eagles defeated the Panthers, 92-75, in their first matchup back in January, snapping Winthrop’s longest losing streak to High Point (five games) in program history. HPU’s sole conference defeat came at the hands of Winthrop, while the Eagles dropped their conference opener at Longwood.
All eyes will be on the Qubein Center Saturday afternoon, as the two Big South regular season heavyweights square off in a highly anticipated rematch. Neither team can drop below the two line, so it’s a straightforward calculus for fans of High Point and Winthrop: Win Saturday and gain the inside track for the No. 1 seed.
Should High Point emerge victorious, it must win out against UNC Asheville this Thursday and next Thursday at Presbyterian to secure the No. 1 seed. A win versus Winthrop, but a defeat in either of the aforementioned two games results in the Eagles taking home the top seed if Winthrop wins the rest of its games and defeats Presbyterian on February 28 due to head-to-head tiebreaker record (WU 4-0, HPU 3-1 in this scenario).
Winthrop completing the sweep of High Point would put a vise grip on the No. 1 seed for the Eagles. High Point would need to defeat Presbyterian and have Winthrop drop both remaining contests (at Charleston Southern and home versus Presbyterian) to reclaim the regular season crown.
Jockeying for Position: Radford, Presbyterian, UNC Asheville, Longwood
To borrow from Anakin Skywalker, this is where the fun begins.
Radford currently controls its own destiny for the third seed. The Highlanders can afford to lose at UNC Asheville Saturday and hang onto the No. 3 slot if the Bulldogs lose another game in the regular season. Should Radford lose versus USC Upstate or at Longwood, in addition to losing at UNC Asheville, (who would need to go 3-1 or better to close the season), then the Highlanders drop to the fourth seed. If Radford stumbles down the stretch and goes 1-3, it could wind up as the No. 5 seed. The only way Radford could fall to sixth is if it loses out to close the season.
Presbyterian set a program record last season, finishing fifth in the Big South regular season. The Blue Hose appears poised to replicate or even improve upon that success. PC owes an 0-2 head-to-head tiebreaker to Radford, but holds the 2-0 head-to-head tiebreaker over UNC Asheville. A third-seed finish is possible, but the Blue Hose will need to go 3-1 and steal a win against either High Point or Winthrop, while having Radford finish 2-2 or worse. An identical 2-2 finish with UNC Asheville maintains Presbyterian as the No. 4 seed and the Bulldogs as the fifth seed. A 1-3 close will drop PC to sixth only if one of those losses includes Longwood.
As mentioned, UNC Asheville needs to go 3-1 or 4-0 to close the season, and for Radford to take another loss outside of their meeting to finish third. If the Bulldogs finish 3-1, they will likely earn at least the fourth seed. Matching PC at 2-2 won’t do the Bulldogs any favors given their owed tiebreaker. Even a 1-3 finish likely keeps UNC Asheville in fifth, as it owns a 2-0 tiebreaker over Longwood. An 0-4 finish opens the door for a sixth or seventh-seed finish, but those scenarios appear murky and unlikely.
Longwood is in the unique position of having the conference’s best win, the sole victory over Winthrop to date, yet the Lancers have work to do elsewhere amidst the pack. Longwood owes an 0-2 tiebreaker to UNC Asheville, and dropped its first matchup against Radford. The Lancers did defeat Presbyterian in their first matchup, so Thursday will go a long way in sorting the final standings. The Lancers have a narrow path to the third seed, as it would include a 3-0 finish along with UNC Asheville and Radford going 2-2, with the Bulldogs needing to defeat the Highlanders. A 3-0 finish, combined with a Radford victory over UNC Asheville and a 2-2 Bulldogs finish, gets Longwood to fourth. Another loss caps the Lancers’ ceiling to the fifth seed. A 1-2 finish can secure the No. 5 seed if that one win is over Presbyterian, and the Blue Hose finishes 1-3. The most plausible scenarios will result in Longwood finishing sixth for a second straight year. If the Lancers lose out, the seventh seed is in play but once again unlikely.
Looking to Play Spoiler: Charleston Southern, USC Upstate, Gardner-Webb
After a 2-0 start, it looked like Charleston Southern was ready to make a serious run at making noise in the top of the table. The Buccaneers since dropped eight of nine contests, including seven straight prior to a win over Presbyterian. CSU can still finish as high as fourth if it wins out and Radford wins out, with some other help. In the more likely realm of possibilities, the Buccaneers must go at least 3-1 to close to escape the seventh seed. They will also need to fend off USC Upstate, who owns a 2-0 tiebreaker.
Speaking of the Spartans, they can match CSU’s record to end the season and claim the seventh seed. Upstate’s ceiling is the fifth seed, but that requires winning out to close. A minimum of a 3-1 finish will be needed to claim the sixth seed, and would require Presbyterian to lose out as Longwood’s win over Winthrop prevents Upstate from surpassing the Lancers, with whom they split their two regular season meetings.
Gardner-Webb’s ceiling is definitively capped at the eighth seed, locking Jeremy Luther’s team into the opening-round game on Wednesday, March 4. The Runnin’ Bulldogs can get there by winning their final two games, including over USC Upstate (against whom Gardner-Webb picked up its lone Big South win), and the Spartans losing the rest of the way.
For simulating all possible scenarios, check out https://bball.notnothing.net/bigsouth.php?sport=mbb
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