A-10 Tempo Thursday: February 4, 2021

By Ray Floriani (@rfloriani)

Meet me in St. Louis. 

That is theme this week, as conference-leading St. Bonaventure visits the gateway to the West to battle Saint Louis. Travis Ford’s Billikens are the favorite to capture the Atlantic 10 title, still finding their way after a fairly substantial pause before resuming action recently. The Billikens are 0-2 in conference play following Wednesday night’s loss at La Salle, and need to stop the bleeding. St. Bonaventure looks to keep the momentum going, Saint Louis hopes get on track by getting in the win column. It’s fair to say this will be a significant test for both teams, and a contest certain to be closely watched. 

The A-10 postseason tournament has been moved from Brooklyn to Richmond. VCU’s Siegel Center and Robins Center, the Richmond home, will both be used to host the tournament. The regular season ends in exactly one month. It would be surprising not to see some changes of some sort in the standings, from now until early March.    

As always, all numbers and conference records are courtesy of KenPom:

Efficiency Margins and Records

1) St. Bonaventure (+17, 7-1)

2) Davidson (+12, 5-2)

3) Richmond (+11, 4-2)

4) UMass (+10, 5-2)

5) VCU (+6, 6-2)

6) Dayton (+5, 6-4)

7) Rhode Island (+4, 6-6)

8) Duquesne (+3, 6-5)

9) George Washington (-2, 2-3)

10) George Mason (-4, 4-5)

11) La Salle (-7, 5-6)

12) Saint Louis (-9, 0-2)

13) Saint Joseph’s (-18, 0-9)

14) Fordham (-24, 1-9)

Dayton’s inconsistency is mentioned when we look at upcoming games. How else can you explain losses at home against La Salle and at Fordham, plus victories at Davidson and Saint Louis? It’s time to look at the Flyers’ most recent four games. A breakdown of the efficiency margin of each contest illustrates why you may not realize which Dayton team will show up:

VCU 63, Dayton 44 (-36)

Dayton 76, Saint Louis 71 (+17)

Dayton 67, Rhode Island 56 (+18)

Duquesne 69, Dayton 64 (-7)

The score and margin from the Duquesne game could have been inflated if not for a late surge by the Flyers. Following the Duquesne loss, Dayton still has won five of its last seven. Regardless, there is still the lingering doubt regarding what to make of this year’s group.               

Offensive Efficiency Leaders

1) Richmond (112)

2) Davidson (109)

3) St. Bonaventure (106)

4) Dayton (103)

5) Saint Louis (101)

Defensive Efficiency Leaders

1) St. Bonaventure (89)

2) UMass and VCU (91)

4) Rhode Island and Duquesne (94)

Tempo Leaders

1) VCU and Saint Louis (72 possessions per game)

3) Saint Joseph’s and UMass (71)

5) La Salle (70)

Slowest Tempo

1) Fordham (64 possessions per game)

2) Dayton and Davidson (65)

4) St. Bonaventure and Duquesne (66)

Games of Note

January 30: St. Bonaventure 84, George Mason   67

The Bonnies jumped out to an 18-point halftime lead en route to their seventh straight victory. Dominick Welch led all scorers with 22 points as Mark Schmidt’s group also posted an outstanding 125 offensive efficiency. 

Dayton 67, Rhode Island 56

Ibi Watson led a balanced, four in double figures,  Flyer attack with a game-high 22 points. Anthony Grant’s team was excellent, holding the Rams to a 90 offensive efficiency and just 24 second half points. 

February 2: Duquesne 69, Dayton 64

Duquesne christened its UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse with a third straight victory. The Dukes led by 22 with just under ten minutes to play before Dayton made a late run. The Flyers’ Jalen Crtucher paced all scorers with 28 points, while handing out six assists. 

February 3: La Salle 82, Saint Louis 75

Balance was the key for the Explorers in this upset win. Five players were in double figures, led by David Beatty’s 22 points. La Salle also shot 8-of-19 from 3-point range. 

Upcoming

February 6: St. Bonaventure at Saint Louis

The Bonnies, first in conference play, face the Billikens, the A-10 favorite among many prognosticators. For Saint Louis, starting conference play with two losses, this looms as a must-win proposition.  

February 7: VCU at Duquesne

The Dukes, winners of three straight and four of the last five will face a test against the Rams. Tempo will be a major consideration. Who can impose their will? Uptempo VCU or deliberate Duquesne. 

February 9: Dayton at UMass 

The clock is ticking and the visiting Flyers need this one.

February 10: Rhode Island at Saint Louis

The idea of an hourglass emptying can also be applied to the visiting Rams, as well as their hosts. Rhody came off a week of two losses. Next is a home date with UMass before heading into what should be a difficult road test. 

Numbers

Duquesne needs time to get acclimated to its new home, at least from the foul line. The Dukes shot 14-of-22 from the charity stripe in the win over Dayton. Several of those misses allowed the visiting Flyers to put together a late rally. 

St. Bonaventure shot 5-of-14 from long distance in its win over George Mason. Dominick Welch led the way for the Bonnies, going 4-of-6 from deep.

In a win over La Salle, VCU posted a 41 percent offensive rebounding rate, while forcing the Explorers into a 26 percent turnover rate.

In their win over Saint Joseph’s, Keith Dambrot’s Duquesnr Dukes committed just six turnovers in posting an excellent 9 percent turnover rate.

Fordham held UMass, minus Tre Mitchell, to a 90 offensive efficiency. The Rams could not pull an upset, losing 60-54, largely due to their own 81 on the offensive end.

VCU is on a roll. The Rams defeated Rhode Island, 63-62, on Wednesday in Kingston. They are on a three-game win streak and captured four of their last five. Bones Hyland led the way with a game-high 23 points. 

All-KenPom

Jordan Goodwin, Saint Louis

Bones Hyland, VCU

Jalen Crutcher, Dayton

Grant Golden, Richmond

Jaren Holmes, St. Bonaventure

Conference Trends

Efficiency: 98

Tempo: 68 possessions per game

Home record: 30-28 (.517)

Close games: 12 of 58 (20.7 percent)

Blowouts: 10 of 58 (17.2 percent)

Not a great deal of close games (defined by KenPom as less than a four-point difference or any in overtime) have taken place, but on the flip side, less than one-fifth of the decisions have been of the runaway variety. One can expect an increase in close games as we had in the stretch run. Then again, in this season of uncertainty, nothing is guaranteed.