Ladies and gentlemen, this is the moment you’ve all been waiting for.
Over 5,500 Division I college basketball games have been played during the 2025-26 season so far, and every last one of them has led to this moment. It’s time to fill out your NCAA Tournament bracket!
Filling out a bracket can be a fun, yet intimidating experience for most who haven’t done one very often, if at all. It can be a rewarding, yet humbling experience for veteran bracket-goers like myself who are in tune with the ins and outs of the sport. It’s why the moniker of March Madness is so fitting: You never really know what is going to happen during this three week stretch in March and early April every year.
That’s why I’m here to help. Though it’s not an exact science, I decided to put something together that will (hopefully) help you not only do well in your bracket pools, but give you a fun, shared experience in what is my favorite postseason event on the sports calendar.
Welcome to the first-ever edition of my NCAA Tournament bracket primer. Whether you’re picking using analytical data, picking all the top teams regardless or based on your favorite colors or mascots, I’ve got you covered.
Trends of past champions
Let’s start all the way at the top. Picking a champion is the most crucial part of picking your bracket every year. It is virtually impossible to win a bracket pool without getting the champion right, as they will collect the most points for you over the course of the tournament (including the championship game itself).
How do you identify a potential champion? Is it just picking the No. 1 seeds? The answer to that is both yes and no. Since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 26 of the 40 national champions have been No. 1 seeds, which equates to 65 percenr of the last 40 champions. Of the other 14 champions, only two have been below a 4-seed (1985 Villanova and 2014 UConn, who we’ll see a lot of as an outlier in this article).
In this analytical day and age, there are plenty of other factors that are important in identifying a national champion. Here are some noteworthy ones of some I have researched:
Every champion since 2004 has been in the Top 12 in the Week 6 AP poll. Since 1988, only Syracuse (2003) is the only champion to not be in the Top 12 in Week 6.
All but five champions since 2001 have had a better offense than defense nationally prior to entering the tournament, per KenPom: 2004 UConn, 2011 UConn, 2013 Louisville (top defense), 2014 UConn (historical outlier) and 2016 Villanova.
All but two champions since 2011 have had a better offensive rating than defensive rating on EvanMiya.com: 2013 Louisville (2.6 points better than the next defense) and 2014 UConn.
All but three champions have been in the Top 5 of Wins Above Bubble (WAB) on Bart Torvik since 2008: UConn in 2011, 2014 and 2023.
Only two champions since 2008 have been outside the Top 100 in offensive turnover percentage, per Torvik: 2021 Baylor and 2023 UConn.
Only four champions since 2008 have been outside the Top 50 in offensive rebound percentage, per Torvik: 2014 UConn, Villanova in both 2016 and 2018, and 2019 Virginia.
I’m aware this is a lot to take in, so let me help you break it down. First, the Top 12 AP poll stat is a good one in separating preseason expectation from the results of the first six weeks of the season, which is after early non-conference matchups and in present times, feast week MTEs. This year’s week six top 12 has Arizona, Michigan and Duke at the top, with others who had mixed performances over the last twelve weeks.
You often hear the saying “defense wins championships” in sports. It’s an important part of a championship identity, as it’s very difficult to win it all without getting stops. But in March, the most important things are being able to put the ball in the basket, create extra possessions for yourself and take care of the basketball. That’s why I’ve identified the offense over defense stats, offensive rebounding and offensive turnover percentage as characteristics of a champion. Teams who do well in these departments often have good guard play to help facilitate offense, and/or a bigger frontcourt who can create more chances to score.
Usually there are a couple of clear-cut teams that fit all of this criteria. This year? Not so much. Arizona, Duke and Michigan are the teams that fit the most, but none are perfect. First, none of the teams fit the KenPom criteria, as all have better defensive ranks than offensive. On EvanMiya, Arizona is the only team of those three that has a higher defensive rating than offensive, though the Wildcats still rank in the Top 10 nationally in offense. Michigan passes everything else with flying colors, but the Wolverines are 189th nationally in turnover percentage. Duke is closer than Michigan, but still ranks outside the Top 100 at 115. The same goes for the fourth No. 1 seed, Florida, who ranks 161st in turnover percentage. However, the Gators were just 18th in the Week 6 AP Poll.
So what gives? All four No. 1 seeds have a flaw or two, so the next most important thing is something I’ll mention again in this article: Styles make fights. It’s a phrase most often used in boxing, but the same can be said of other sports and in particular in the NCAA Tournament.
For instance, if all four No. 1 seeds make the Final Four, how will they match up against each other? Will Florida’s loaded frontcourt be able to stop Duke’s, the same one that gave teams problems all season? Would Arizona be able to handle Michigan’s size and defense? These are the types of things to consider when picking any matchup, but especially as you get later in the tournament.
The last statistic to touch on here is Wins Above Bubble. Essentially, what this means is a ranking of win quality throughout the season, or in layman's terms, being able to beat good teams. It’s an important one, of course, because to win a national championship, you’re going to have to go through the best teams in the sport. There have only been three teams outside the Top 5 heading into the NCAA Tournament since 2008, and they’ve been the first three of UConn’s four championships in that span (2023 UConn was 13th). Michigan, Duke and Arizona lead the pack, followed by Purdue and Houston to round out the Top 5. Florida is seventh, so still in a strong position but not quite as strong as the other No. 1 seeds.
Final Four contenders
There have only been two instances since 1985 where all four No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four. One, of course, was last year. The other was 2008, when Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA all made it out of their regions. Though this year is another terrific group of top seeds, it’s historically unlikely that they will all make it to Indianapolis. So who are some of the favorites to upset them?
East: St. John’s
This region is loaded with huge brands and outstanding coaches, but if you dig a little deeper you’ll find that it’s also very flawed (more on that later). If any team not named Duke can make a Final Four run, it’s the Big East champion Red Storm. This isn’t a typical pick for me: I think St. John’s lack of offense compared to its counterparts in this region could hurt, but the Johnnies aren’t a turnover-happy team and can rebound the basketball better than most. If they do end up playing Duke, I could see a scenario where Zuby Ejiofor bullies Cameron Boozer and leads St. John’s to an improbable victory. I don’t think that will end up happening, but if there’s anyone that could do it in this region, it’s the team led by one of the best coaches of all time in Rick Pitino.
South: Illinois
This is a risky one. The Illini has all the offensive firepower in the world, led by star freshman Keaton Wagler. The defense isn’t necessarily bad, but I wouldn’t consider it great, either. Illinois’ Achilles’ heel this season has been winning close games, as six of its eight losses this year have been within four points. Four of those games were overtime losses, including the first game of the Big Ten tournament to Wisconsin. The good news for the Illini is despite the fact that it’s certainly a crowded region, it’s not an impossible one. Florida has its flaws, as mentioned earlier, and Houston is once again a team that worries me at times with its offense. If Illinois can find a way to close games, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t shoot its way to Indianapolis.
West: Arkansas
The Razorbacks are the most dangerous team that Arizona could face before the Elite Eight, hands down. They have the SEC Player of the Year in freshman guard Darius Acuff, Jr. His backcourt mate is another star guard in Meleek Thomas, in what is potentially the best duo of guards John Calipari has ever had entering an NCAA Tournament. That’s saying something. Arkansas has the sixth-ranked offense in the country and leads the nation in offensive turnover percentage, in large part due to its star freshman duo. Defense is a concern for this team, as the Hogs rank 48th nationally and 182nd specifically in defensive effective field goal percentage. But man, if this team gets hot…it can beat anybody, and I mean anybody, in the country.
Midwest: Iowa State
To be honest, I don’t think there’s a lot to choose from in this region. Virginia is a good team, but I don’t think a great one. I’ll talk about Alabama and Texas Tech in a bit, but they have problems of their own. Tennessee is solid and Santa Clara could make a bit of a run if things go right, but this lines up perfectly for Iowa State to finally make a deep run. The Cyclones have flirted with being among the sport’s elite teams the last few seasons, but don’t have the NCAA Tournament results to show for it. They have one of the top scorers in the country in Joshua Jefferson, the best three-point shooter in the country in Milan Momcilovic and a veteran lead guard in Tamin Lipsey. Even with all of that, offense is still a concern when it comes to beating the best, but their defense is as elite as ever. They also boast a key strength to oppose a glaring weakness in a potential matchup with Michigan: They turn people over. If there’s any year Iowa State can finally break through, it’s this one.
Teams to avoid making deep runs
On the flip side of what’s been talked about so far, there are teams on some of the top seed lines that disappoint in March every year. This doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be the victim of a first-round upset, but a loss in the second round or for some, the Sweet 16, would be a failure in the eyes of those teams.
And there will surely be some of those teams this year. Here are a few I think will have earlier exits than expected:
Alabama
We start at the top of the alphabet here, but Alabama is just one of those teams I can’t see matching any sort of hype it could get. Sure, Labaron Philon is one of the best guards in the country. Philon himself may be able to help win a game or two, and the Crimson Tide does have the third-ranked offense in the country according to KenPom. But Alabama ranks just 67th defensively, plays at a frantic pace (fourth in the country) and averages the most 3-point attempts in the country. If shots aren’t falling, things can unravel, which can lead to an early exit for Nate Oats and company. Another thing to keep an eye on is the Monday morning arrest of Aden Holloway, the Tide’s second leading scorer, which would obviously make things exponentially worse if he misses any time. As to when exactly I have them dropping out of the tournament, well stay tuned.
Kansas
Speaking of teams with star guards that I’m down on, Kansas has been the enigma of the college basketball world all season long. The Jayhawks’ most talented player is Darryn Peterson, the potential number one pick in this year’s NBA Draft, but he’s missed so much time this season that people think they play better without him (they might). They also have Flory Bidunga, who has also been outstanding this season, and Melvin Council has been impressive as well. Even with all this talent and a hall of fame head coach in Bill Self, I don’t think Kansas has the offense to keep up with teams of the same stature in the tournament. I have the Jayhawks beating Cal Baptist before falling to St. John’s in the second round.
UConn
I’ve been perplexed with this UConn team all year. The Huskies ranked among the top teams in Wins Above Bubble until conference tournament play, with wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Texas in non-conference play. Yet their predictive metrics never were quite as high as the public was on them, and they routinely played down to competition in a weak Big East even if they finished with a 17-3 record in league play. They are deserving of a 2-seed based off those early-season wins bolstering their resume, but I don’t think an overly deep tournament run is in the cards for them. I have UConn beating Furman in the first round and a banged-up UCLA team in the second round, before falling to Michigan State in the Sweet 16.
Nebraska
The Cornhuskers were the fifth-ranked team in the country and undefeated on January 27, when they had No. 2 Michigan on the ropes while being down two players. Since then, it hasn’t been quite as smooth sailing for them, but it’s still been their best season in a long, long time (ever?), and they are well positioned to win their first NCAA Tournament game in program history. Still, I wouldn’t be counting on this team to do anything overly special in the coming weeks. Nebraska plays great defense, and having that as your floor is never a bad thing, but doesn’t have the offense to complement it, ranking just 55th nationally according to KenPom. I have the Huskers beating Troy, a popular upset pick, in the first round before losing to Vanderbilt in the second round.
Potential upsets and Cinderellas
The champions are how you win your bracket, but picking (and watching) upsets unfold is everyone’s favorite thing to do in March. But it’s not just who wins in the first round either, it’s watching teams that can go on runs none of us ever expected. Think of the 2022 Saint Peter’s team as a 15-seed, who shocked the world by beating 2-seed Kentucky before beating 7-seed Murray State and 3-seed Purdue, before eventually falling to the 8-seed in North Carolina.
We love rooting for the underdog, so here are some to look out for this year:
Hofstra
The Pride is back in the tournament for the first time since 2001, when a man named Jay Wright was roaming the sidelines on Long Island before taking the head coaching job at Villanova. This team has one of the best guard duos in this tournament in Cruz Davis and Preston Edmead, the latter of whom is still just a freshman. Not only that, but Hofstra has some size too in seven-foot center Silas Sunday. The Pride will face an uber-talented guard in Labaron Philon in the first round as mentioned earlier, but I have the Pride not only pulling off the upset, but moving past Texas Tech in the second round as well to make the Sweet 16 in my biggest Cinderella run of the tournament.
South Florida
This is a team I’ve been eyeing for weeks, if not longer, in hopes it would not only win the American tournament and get in the field, but also have a good matchup in the first round. The Bulls draw a banged-up Louisville, with star freshman Mikel Brown, Jr. still questionable to suit up with a lower back injury. USF has talent in its own right, with the American player of the Year in forward Izaiyah Nelson and guards Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion, among others. This will be a popular upset pick, and for good reason. I’m going with the Bulls here before losing in the second round to Michigan State.
Santa Clara
Is this an upset pick? Not really. Kentucky is only a 2.5-point favorite, but with two digits next to Santa Clara’s name, this fits the bill for a potential Cinderella at the very least. The Broncos have a pretty solid offense, led by guard Christian Hammond and forward Elijah Mahi, and will be among the taller teams in the tournament field (16th in average height). This is good, because Kentucky is ninth on that list. This could be a case where people see Kentucky and pick the Wildcats based on their conference and brand, but Santa Clara should hold its own and even win this game, and could give Iowa State some trouble as well should they meet in the Second Round.
Texas/NC State
Ah yes, the ol’ First Four to advance to the second round pick. If any two teams are best positioned to do that this year, it’s one of NC State or Texas. The winner will match up with BYU, who lost one of its top scorers in Richie Saunders for the year and has lost four of its last seven. The problem is, NC State and Texas have been worse; they’ve both lost five of their last six. Even still, both teams are underseeded as an 11-seed with how poorly they limped into the tournament, and both can turn up the scoring similar to BYU. I like NC State to beat Texas and if the Wolfpack can get hot from three against a BYU team that doesn’t defend it well (263rd nationally), I think NC State can get past the Cougars and into the second round.
The fun stuff: mascots, storylines, vibes etc.
This one is for the people who don’t want to nitpick a million different stats and just want to fill out a bracket for fun. As always, there are some fun and unique stories heading into this NCAA Tournament.
LIU
Fins up! The champions of the NEC return to the big dance for the first time since 2018. LIU’s head coach is former NBA vet and New York native Rod Strickland, who has rebuilt this program from a 3-26 record in his first year in 2022 to a 24-10 mark this season. Their nickname is the Sharks, and they have a cool free throw ritual to go with it. They’ll take on the No. 1 seed of the West region, Arizona, in the first round.
McNeese
Remember student manager Amir “Aura” Khan from last year’s NCAA Tournament? Well, McNeese is back, and so is the aura. After following head coach Will Wade to NC State after last season, he transferred back to McNeese in December. The Cowboys won their first-round matchup against Clemson last year, and will look for more of the same against Vanderbilt this season.
UMBC
The Retrievers haven’t been back to the NCAA Tournament since pulling off the most historic upset in history, becoming the first-ever 16-seed to beat a 1 when they knocked off top-ranked Virginia in 2018. Until now. UMBC won the America East conference tournament on its home floor over conference powerhouse Vermont, and will look to reclaim some of the magic that was in the air eight years ago.
Hawaii
Hawaii has possibly the best name in all of college sports, the Rainbow Warriors. This is the program’s first tournament appearance in 10 years, when they beat Jaylen Brown’s Cal team as a 13-seed in 2016 before falling to Maryland in the second round. The Rainbow Warriors are hoping for more of the same this time around, as they are a 13-seed again, this time facing Arkansas in the first round.
Idaho
The Vandals are back! It’s their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1990, as they entered the Big Sky tournament as the 7-seed but ended up the last team standing. They have a tough draw as a 15-seed against perennial Final Four threat Houston, but it’s always nice to see teams break long droughts in returning to the big dance.
Cal Baptist
Speaking of long droughts, Cal Baptist had NEVER been to the NCAA Tournament until it clinched a bid in the last-ever WAC tournament final on Saturday. But this potential Cinderella isn’t just happy to be here, bringing the best scorer per game entering the tournament in guard Dominique Daniels, Jr. Cal Baptist will take on Kansas as a 13-seed in the first round.
Penn
I couldn’t go this entire article without mentioning the Big 5 in any way! Penn is back for the first time since 2018 and, along with Villanova, has broken the longest tournament drought in the collective history of the Philadelphia Big 5 (three years). A heroic 44-point performance from TJ Power helped the Quakers defeat Yale in the Ivy League final, and he’s not even their leading scorer this season. Ethan Roberts missed Ivy Madness with recurrence of concussion symptoms, but there’s a chance he could be back for their first-round matchup against Illinois. I wish Penn got a better draw, but I ultimately think the Illini will have the Quakers’ number in this one. But wouldn’t that be something if they don’t?
My Picks
And finally, it’s time for my personal picks. I’ve shared a number of them in this article, so I’m only going to share the Elite Eight and on.
East: (1)Duke over (3) Michigan State
South: (3) Illinois over (1) Florida
West: (1) Arizona over (3) Gonzaga
Midwest: (2) Iowa State over (1) Michigan
Final Four: (1) Duke over (3) Illinois
(1) Arizona over (2) Iowa State
National Championship: (1) Arizona over (1) Duke
Ultimately, I went with the team that I think has the least amount of flaws and will be the hardest to knock off. That team is Arizona. The Wildcats have a talented backcourt in Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries. They have size and scoring in Koa Peat, Anthony Dell’Orso and Tobe Awaka. They have a big defensive stud in Motiejus Krivas. They’re elite on the offensive glass, take care of the basketball better than others, and play with a level of consistency you need to take care of business in March and April. They have enough offense to complement their outstanding defense, and that’s why I’ve picked them as the team that will be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis on April 6 as champions of the NCAA Tournament.
