A-10 Tempo Thursday: January 7, 2021

By Ray Floriani (@rfloriani)

In this very unorthodox year, one thing is certain: Expect the unexpected. 

That is what the Atlantic 10 is giving us in the early going. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound effect on all of college basketball. In the A-10, several programs had been affected and forced to pause activities. It all added up to disjointed non-conference schedules, practice time and everyone literally adjusting day to day. It all added to the uncertainty.

The first Tempo Thursday of 2021 starts with the efficiency margins (defense subtracted from offense) of the 14 teams. Only conference games are calculated, and all numbers are courtesy of KenPom. Games through January 6 are included.

Efficiency Margins and Records

1) VCU (+15, 2-0)

T-2) UMass (+11, 1-1)

T-2) St. Bonaventure (+11, 2-1)

4) La Salle (+10, 2-1)

T-5) Davidson (+8, 2-1)

T-5) George Washington (+8, 2-1)

7) Richmond (+5, 2-1)

8) Dayton (+3, 1-2)

T-9) Rhode Island (0 2-2)

T-9) Saint Louis* (0, 0-0)

11) Duquesne (-1, 1-2)

12) George Mason (-5, 1-2)

13) Saint Joseph’s (-22, 0-3)

14) Fordham (-31, 1-2)

Saint Louis gets the proverbial asterisk. The Billikens were shut down for two weeks due to COVID prior to playing a conference game. Travis Ford’s group did go 7-1 in non-conference play, with the lone blemish a loss to Minnesota. The numbers for the conference favorite over the course of those eight games bear mentioning:

Pace: 69 possessions 

Offensive efficiency: 111 

Defensive efficiency: 93 

Efficiency margin: +18

VCU did get one game in, an 80-64 victory over Saint Joseph’s before pausing team activities. The Rams returned Wednesday, earning a 66-61 win at George Mason to keep their A-10 record unblemished.

Offensive Efficiency Leaders

1) Richmond (111)

2) La Salle (109) 

3) UMass (108)

4) George Washington (107)

5) VCU (103)

Defensive Efficiency Leaders

1) VCU (88)

2) St. Bonaventure (91)

3) Davidson (94)

4) Rhode Island (96)

5) UMass (97)

Small sample sizes, which is what we are dealing with to date, can be deceptive. Fordham, for instance, did not play a game at all until it hosted George Washington on December 30th. Last season, the Rams showed a healthy 98 defensive efficiency (fifth in the league) in conference play. To date, the efficiency is 111, extremely above average. The Dayton game (see below) was a little bit more in order for coach Jeff Neubauer’s liking and suggests the first two losses, both one-sided, might be an aberration. Now, if the Rams can just improve that 80 offensive efficiency...

600 Club

A big number for coach Bob McKillop of Davidson was 600. The Wildcat mentor earned his 600th career win with a 61-48 defeat of Duquesne on Tuesday.

Elementary!

In St. Bonaventure’s 83-57 win over Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday, Bonnie junior Jaren Holmes scored a game-high 38 points. The 6-foot-4 junior buried eight 3-point field goals while adding 10 rebounds in 37 minutes.

Recent Games of Note

Friday, December 18: Davidson 67, Rhode Island 58

Bob McKillop had been preaching better defense since day one. For his Davidson team, it came together in posting a road victory. The Wildcats held URI to a 91 efficiency while not ignoring offense. They racked up a healthy 105 on the offensive end. The attack was ignited by a 40 percent (10-of-25) mark from long range as four Davidson players hit double figures.

Saturday, January 2: St. Bonaventure 69, Richmond 66

The Bonnies had trouble on the boards in their A-10 opening loss at Rhode Island. Against the Spiders, they owned a 38-26 edge on offensive rebounding percentage. That proved to be a difference, as was Kyle Lofton’s game winning three in the final seconds.

Tuesday, January 5: Fordham 55, Dayton 54

The Rams could not muster much of an offense (95 efficiency), but showed some of the defense they displayed a year ago. They held the visiting Flyers to an efficiency of 93. That came after allowing George Washington and La Salle to rack up 111 and 127 numbers, respectively.

KenPom’s All-A-10 Team

Jordan Goodwin, Saint Louis 

Jalen Crutcher, Dayton 

Osun Osunniyi, St. Bonaventure

Grant Golden, Richmond 

Fatts Russell, Rhode Island

Percentage of Possessions Used

This metric factors in the percentage of team possessions a player uses while he is on the floor. It is interesting to look at this in the early stages of conference play, and also to see how the numbers on the top 10 leaderboard progress as the weeks go by, and hopefully, coaches are able to get more players to contribute significantly in their rotation.

1) James Bishop, George Washington (31.5%)

2) Jordan Miller, George Mason (29.8) 

3) Tre Mitchell, UMass (28.5)

4) Ty Perry, Fordham 28.3 

T-5) Anthony Roberts, St. Bonaventure (27.8)

T-5) Sherif Kenney, La Salle (27.8)

7) Makhel Mitchell, Rhode Island (27.4) 

8) Marcus Weathers, Duquesne (27.1)

9) T.J. Weeks, UMass (26.7)

10) Fatts Russell, Rhode Island (26.5)

Upcoming Games to Watch

Friday, January 8: Dayton at Davidson

The clock is ticking. After a rough start, Dayton needs to get back on track. The task is difficult, but a win here would be a game changer for Anthony Grant’s Flyers.

Saturday, January 9: LaSalle at UMass

The Explorers are off to a good conference start. Picking up a road win here would avenge their only conference setback and serve notice to the rest of the league.

Rhode Island at VCU

The battle of the Rams will see VCU playing its second game since December 30. Mike Rhoades’ unit will get a test against a Rhode Island team that can be explosive offensively and will not be an easy out.

Conference Trends

Average efficiency: 100

Pace: 68 possessions 

Turnover rate: 20 percent

Home court record: 8-11 (.421)

Offenses are still adjusting in this season of constant change. The turnover rate is right at the cutoff, as teams aspire to be under 20 percent. Home court advantage is largely negated. Up until Wednesday, when home teams captured two of the three games, the home court winning percentage was in the high thirties. Last season, home teams won conference games at a 56 percent rate. Cutouts in the stands do not really provide an intimidating atmosphere. Outside of a team’s familiarity with its home turf, there is not much of an advantage, and games are contested in a neutral court-type setting.